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Friday, February 18, 2011

China's Serious Coal Problem

Chinese President Hu Jintao meets with President Obama today in Washington DC. The two presidents are supposed to have a private lunch and then discuss a variety of topics including trade, military, North Korea, Iran, human rights, the dollar, the yuan and the weather, no doubt.

As the east coast is being hammered with a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow and ice, you might expect the topic of coal to come up. After all, a majority of electricity in the United States and China is provided by coal. And for the past few years, China has started to import coal -- mostly from Australia.
As a result, China's domestic coal companies are practically minting money. They can't produce coal fast enough, because no matter how much coal they bring to market, there's a near-guarantee that they'll be able to sell it for top dollar.

They don't have to worry about anything except for increasing production. And now, with floods in Australia, the amount of coal being shipped to China has decreased substantially. Coal prices have responded favorably -- rising from $89 per metric ton up to over $120 per metric ton -- with no signs of stopping:

It's been a year since my boss, Ian Wyatt, recommended one small Chinese coal company to subscribers of his research service Energy World Profits.  And folks who bought this company when he recommended it are now sitting on 81% gains.

Today, Ian still targets an even higher price for this company -- and it's still a buy.
I'm talking about Puda Coal(PUDA_).

A lack of Australian coal puts this company in an even better position. Even when Australian coal production resumes, the market will have to play catch up. There's no substitute for coal in China, and they've been increasing their imports.

So my recommendation would be to buy Chinese coal companies like Puda -- with domestic production. Even if China's coal demand is reduced by half, they'll still need to tap into their domestic supply. It's relatively cheaper than Australian coal, it's readily available and it's extremely important to China's growth and sustainability.

I'd recommend picking up shares of Puda under $20. That's about a 50% upside from today's price.

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